What’s new? The Myanmar military, which has suffered a series of battlefield defeats to opposition forces, is rapidly losing control of the country’s periphery. Elite circles are blaming Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing, whose days in charge could be numbered, but the military itself is not on the brink of collapse.
Why does it matter? The Myanmar state is fragmenting as ethnic armed groups consolidate control of their homelands, while in the country’s centre a weak regime clings to power and launches revenge air attacks on territories it has lost. Further fragmentation seems inevitable but does not necessarily presage catastrophic inter-group violence.
What should be done? Myanmar’s neighbours should be more flexible in engaging with bordering non-state authorities. Notwithstanding the inclination to engage with national governments, donors should explore ways to strengthen the service delivery and governance functions of existing and emerging subnational administrations, while remaining mindful of conflict risks, human rights considerations and legal constraints. |
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