Ever since it became the third largest party in Spain, Vox has exploited its reinforced position to advance its ultra-nationalist agenda and influence the political conversation. But despite the rise in popularity and media exposure, the far-right party has failed to enter a regional government – let alone the central administration. Thus far, the group has only provided external support for the right-wing Popular Party but without securing any cabinet post. The string of bad luck could change next month, when the Castilla y León region holds early elections. Vox’s polling numbers are steadily improving as the campaign focuses on sensitive issues like population decline, climate change and meat production. The polarising environment could hand Vox the key to enter a coalition government for the very first time, writes Heather Galloway.